The question this answers

"Will my money last?" is hard to answer with a single straight line, because real markets don't return the same amount every year. A good year early in retirement and a bad year early in retirement can lead to very different outcomes, even with the same average return — that's sequence-of-returns risk.

Frank's retirement projection tackles this by running your plan through thousands of possible market paths and reporting the range of outcomes, so you can see the odds rather than a single guess.

What Frank shows you

Ask Frank something like "What are the odds my super lasts to 90?" and Frank returns:

• A success rate — the percentage of simulated market paths in which your balance lasts as long as you planned (for example, "your money lasts in 82% of scenarios").
• Balance ranges over time — a worst-case, middle, and best-case path (the p10, p50 and p90 outcomes), so you can see how wide the spread is, not just the average.

This is general information to help you understand how your plan holds up under different market conditions. It is not personal financial advice, and it is not a prediction of what markets will actually do.

What the projection uses

The simulation is driven by the figures in your account, including:

• your current super and investment balances;
• contributions and planned drawdowns;
• the time horizon you set (for example, to age 90).

Return assumptions. Frank uses a return-and-volatility assumption to generate the market paths. These assumptions can be drawn from your own history where you have enough data, so the model reflects how your portfolio has actually behaved, rather than a generic figure. You can see which assumptions a projection used.

Reading the result

• A higher success rate means more of the simulated paths lasted the distance. There is no single "safe" number — it's a way to compare scenarios.
• A wide gap between the worst-case and best-case balances tells you the outcome is sensitive to market conditions and timing.
• Change an input — retire later, draw down less, adjust contributions — and re-run to see how the odds and ranges shift.

Limitations

• Projections are scenarios, not forecasts. They show a range of possibilities under modelled assumptions; actual returns, inflation, tax rules and your circumstances will differ.
• The output is general information. For decisions about your retirement, consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser.
• See Running Financial Scenarios for the other planning tools, and The Burn-down Calculator for a simpler drawdown view.